Thursday, October 16, 2008

Tale of Two Problems....


While the news mainly follows the credit/banking crisis, the other news, serious problems in the actual economy. Industrial output is down 2.8%, largest decline since '74. Chart above shows retail sales slump. This will lead to calls for economic stimulus outside of the bank credit stimulus. Yet, this issue remains essentially unaddressed. That coming fight will be structural stimulus v. checks. Pehaps we'll get some bridges and infrastructure this time, instead of Sony getting the money for their government check-for- plasma TV program.
Compounding the problem, S&P may downgrade 280 billion in alt-a mortgages.

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