Monday, October 13, 2008

RECORD DAY, GOOD NEWS ON CDS, MARKET DIRECTION...

Sucker's rally or a real bottom? See both arguments here. Julian Robertson loads up on select stocks. The DTCC reports good news on the Lehman CDS, suggesting the numbers are far lower than projected, at 6 billion, not the 400 billion numbers reported. Not sure what to make of this disparity of reporting yet, but will keep at eye on DTCC reports and the pay date of Oct 21.

Daily analysis: There are two broad overhang fears. 1) total banking/financial collapse 2) deep recession. The first fear was addressed by the G-7, we will not let banks fail, the market is reacting. Addressing this may shallow the recession but not stop it. The second question must still be addressed in the weeks ahead. What damage has already been done and what damage will be done to earnings, what drives markets in the mid-term.

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