Nourial called this crisis, exactly, years ago. He was shunned. Now, he's the most in demand economist in the US. He's on Bloomberg video here. His opening line is right out of Silence of the Lambs. He's part Turkish-American, part Hannibal Lector, NYU.
He is asserting thus:
The $250 billion bank recapitalization is only the beginning. The government will soon have to re-up (because it hasn't dealt with the huge writedown problem), and it will eventually have to take a much more active role in bank management. Otherwise, we'll just have a plague of zombie banks, like Japan.
House prices will fall 40%, worse than the Great Depression. (Sounds horrifying, but we're more than halfway there).
Worst recession in 40 years, now projected to last 18-24 months.
Stock market rally will sputter
Economy is "really tanking"
Total bank losses from crap debt will be "closer to $3 trillion" (up from previous estimate of $1-$2 trillion). This compares to about $650 billion of writeoffs so far.
Source.
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